"The total LiDAR market was worth $1.3B in 2018 and is expected to reach $6B by 2024. Automotive applications should represent 70% of the total market.
Huge investments have been made since 2016, surpassing $1B and showing the great interest in LiDAR technology and more generally autonomous driving features. MEMS is the technology attracting most investments, followed by optical phased arrays, although investments in the latter have considerably declined since 2016.
Therefore, MEMS and flash technologies seem to be favored by LiDAR manufacturers. These two technologies are promising and should be introduced rapidly into the market: MEMS will be introduced by BMW in 2021; flash is being pushed by Continental, expecting an introduction by a carmaker in 2020.
A majority of LiDAR manufacturers are using optical components at a wavelength of 905nm due to their large availability at a reasonable cost compared with 1550nm components. Edge emitting lasers and avalanche photodiodes at 905nm are typical components of LiDARs developed today. Other components like vertical cavity surface emitting lasers (VCSELs), single-photon avalanche diodes (SPADs), and silicon photomultipliers (SiPMs) can also be used. However, they are expected in the next generation of LiDAR, as time is needed to increase their performance and reduce their cost."
Who can dare to make valuable predictions today down to 2050!?!??? 2050 is in 32 years... almost as old as the semiconductor industry is today... Junior market analysts (like they have many working @ YOLE Development) tend to do the mistake to underestimate long term trends / forecasts, and overestimate short term trends / forecasts... this is a good example of this limitation :)
ReplyDeleteI agree it is a bold extrapolation, however do not forget that the average lifespan for a vehicle is still 10 years (if you are not forced to change it due do debatable regulations). Low-end cars (most of them are still L0) bough today will be around till 2029. That's the meaning of the slide I believe.
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